Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 51.867848 57.404655 63.642052 71.267118 80.447152 91.290833 1.053000e+02
2025-02-09 44.165655 51.320436 60.065239 71.820622 87.685066 109.143491 1.419639e+02
2025-02-16 39.204307 46.918136 56.836165 71.026666 91.773701 122.880336 1.777592e+02
2025-02-23 35.582966 43.493055 54.046283 69.876216 94.540678 134.889616 2.161677e+02
2025-03-02 32.636282 40.529162 51.359960 68.219280 95.884586 144.661764 2.558937e+02
2025-03-09 30.464773 38.357872 49.460286 67.328600 98.098142 156.464981 3.083232e+02
2025-03-16 28.159665 35.778043 46.671091 64.601690 96.528246 160.375479 3.444979e+02
2025-03-23 27.566110 35.567104 47.333505 67.481210 105.589141 189.837750 4.916361e+02
2025-03-30 26.275086 34.222664 46.115746 66.995106 108.076977 205.412170 6.187487e+02
2025-04-06 24.997708 32.803473 44.647894 65.867077 109.008558 217.537790 7.607669e+02
2025-04-13 23.526830 31.002467 42.434719 63.151778 106.075277 217.971599 8.412220e+02
2025-04-20 23.242858 30.985088 43.085575 65.738073 115.315333 259.335143 1.432989e+03
2025-04-27 22.977962 31.010163 43.859700 68.785849 126.846371 319.513535 3.340044e+03
2025-05-04 22.293824 30.333461 43.397498 69.364660 132.580014 364.815729 8.478542e+03
2025-05-11 21.459440 29.364471 42.351080 68.614504 134.637614 396.983503 2.888498e+04
2025-05-18 20.643665 28.380791 41.207279 67.525065 135.523112 425.384787 1.364126e+06
2025-05-25 19.820741 27.344934 39.903461 65.954961 134.696705 444.676859 NaN
2025-06-01 19.162452 26.548625 38.978659 65.110471 135.887108 479.107243 NaN
2025-06-08 18.304243 25.386467 37.329654 62.522838 131.213253 470.746471 NaN
2025-06-15 18.226012 25.515173 38.034734 65.255191 144.144960 614.422503 NaN
2025-06-22 17.734461 24.925458 37.373276 64.794184 146.452581 679.767247 NaN
2025-06-29 17.197035 24.236339 36.487785 63.723998 146.409999 724.568829 NaN
2025-07-06 16.503226 23.257987 35.013655 61.145651 140.466138 694.757563 NaN